Are your take-profits and stop-losses realistic? Use hit rates to find out

You picked a take-profit at +60% and a stop-loss at −30%. After a week of practice, a hard question shows up: were those levels realistic for how your entries actually move — or did you copy someone else’s numbers?

Aped’s hit rates help answer that from your practice buys, not from a generic backtest.

What is a hit rate here?

After your first buy on a token (while you still have a practice position open and the token page is open), Aped tracks how market cap moved. Later, the Hit rates view asks a simple question:

On those paths, how often did price reach common profit targets or stop levels inside a time window?

For example: how often did market cap touch +25%, +60%, +100%, or +200% after entry? How often did it touch −30%? That is a hit rate — how often a level would have been reachable, not a promise you would have sold there.

What it is not

• Not a guarantee the same levels will work tomorrow
• Not “the best strategy you should have used” across every possible setting (that fuller “look-back optimizer” is on our roadmap)
• Not live trading advice — it is a mirror of your practice sample

Hit rates are the honest first version of that idea: transparent, per practice profile, tied to entries you actually took.

Job to be done

When you finish a practice session, you want to know: should I tighten my targets, widen my stop, or rethink when I enter? Hit rates turn that from a gut feeling into a check against your own history on that profile.

How to use it in three steps

1. Paper trade on one profile long enough to build a real sample (a handful of entries is better than one lucky trade).
2. Open My Dashboard → Analytics → Post-entry market cap and Hit rates.
3. Read the pattern. If +60% almost never shows up but −30% shows up often, your exits may be mismatched to your entries — tighten targets, improve entries, then test the change on a fresh challenge profile.

Quick glossary

• Take-profit (TP) — an exit that sells when you are up by a set amount
• Stop-loss (SL) — an exit that sells when you are down by a set amount
• Market cap (MC) — the size of the token’s market Axiom shows; Aped uses that number for practice trades and for these paths

For a longer practice mindset (expectancy over vanity win rate), see the trader guide.